Baltic Earth Working Group on Coupled Regional Earth System Models

Background and objective

The Baltic Sea and the surrounding region has been the target for numerous modelling studies, building on model development by climate and marine and atmospheric research centres as well as University-based groups in several of the Baltic Sea countries. Modelling capacity in the region includes atmospheric, marine oceanographic, ecosystem and biogeochemical modelling, terrestrial ecosystem, carbon cycle, agricultural and forest production modelling. Earth system models coupling the atmospheric, marine and terrestrial domains are hosted by national climate centres in several countries. Frontiers in regional Earth system modelling include the integration of linkages and feedbacks across domains such as the role of land-sea nutrient fluxes for marine ecosystem dynamics and sea surface-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange.

Models are useful for process studies, but also for the production and elaboration of scenarios of potential future changes and policy impacts. Scenarios are not predictions, but provide a framework for analysis and discussion of future changes in the context of specific assumptions and trends. They thus provide an important tool for planning and policymaking. Initiatives to develop future scenarios for the Baltic Sea region have included the BONUS projects ECOSUPPORT, AMBER, Baltic-C and BalticAPP to develop future scenarios for the Baltic Sea area. The IPCC-catalysed Shared Socio-economic Pathways Framework is also being “downscaled” to the Baltic Sea region in terms of descriptors such as land-cover change.

Description of tasks (or Terms of Reference)

Workshops will be organized to share recent progress in the understanding of regional climate variability with special focus on coupled effects between sea, atmosphere, land and anthroposphere. The Baltic Sea and other European seas and their catchment areas are in the focus like the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, North Sea, and Arctic Ocean - highly sensitive areas where global models fail to give reliable information about changing climate because key processes are not properly resolved. In the thematic focus will be the description of present and future regional climates, the development and evaluation of regional climate system models and the assessment of extreme and high impact events. Joint coordinated modelling experiments are envisaged.

Outbreak session at the Workshop on Regional Climate System Modelling for the European Sea Regions in Palma de Mallorca, 14- 16 March 2018

Thank you all for the fruitful discussions. Although some could not attend the workshop I think we got a step forward on getting the coordinated experiments going and which scientific question to address.

Other material

Ha Hagemann (co-chair)HZG, GeesthachtGermany
Matthias Gröger (co-chair)IOW, WarnemündeGermany
Christian DieterichSMHI, NorrköpingSweden
Markus MeierIOW, WarnemündeGermany
Burkhardt RockelHZG, GeesthachtGermany
Naveed AkhtarHZG, GeesthachtGermany
Stefan HagemannHZG, GeesthachtGermany