Dr. Angelique Melet from Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France, will talk about her current scientific work.
Online via Zoom on Monday 4 May 2026
15:00 cet (Rostock, Stockholm time zone);
16:00 eet (Helsinki, Tallinn time zone)
Please register via the link at the bottom (just name and e-mail address) to get the participation link.
Dynamically downscaled ocean projections
Melet A., M. Irazoqui, G. Reffray, S. Somot and the CLIVAR-CORDEX task force on regional ocean climate projection
Dr. Angelique Melet,
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France.
Abstract:
More granular, regional-to-local ocean climate information on the past, present and future marine and coastal environments is needed for impact analysis, for society’s decision context and to support ocean climate services and climate adaptation measures. Coupled climate models from the current and next Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6, 7) will not typically reach the spatial resolution relevant to society’s decision context. Dynamical downscaling approaches based on high-resolution ocean-only or ocean-atmosphere regional climate models can fill this gap.
In this presentation, we will first illustrate the impacts of dynamically downscaled projections of mean and extreme sea levels for the northeastern Atlantic and adjacent seas using a high-resolution regional ocean model (RCM) forced by 4 CMIP6 global climate models -GCM- under 3 SSP scenarios and explicitly and coherently resolving dynamic sea levels, tides and storm surges. Comparison of projected mean sea level in the GCMs and RCMs show substantial differences in the North Sea and western Mediterranean for 20-year means and seasonal variability changes but minimal differences in interannual variability. Differences in projected changes in ESL in a dynamic vs static approach are local but substantial and arise from regionally varying, often compensating contributions from future changes in ESL drivers, emphasizing the value of dynamically consistent projections that resolve these contributions.
Beyond these specific regional studies, dynamically downscaled ocean and sea level projections are developing worldwide. An inventory of existing simulations will be presented together with a way forward within the WCRP CLIVAR-CORDEX joint working group on regional ocean climate projections for coordinated dynamically downscaled multi-model assessment, including for sea level changes, that could feed the IPCC assessment on regional projected changes.
Register here to receive the participation link: https://eu02web.zoom-x.de/meeting/register/6ZVOxejJSxqYGYkKhgNBrg
