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3rd Baltic Earth Conference
Earth system changes and Baltic Sea coasts
Jastarnia, Hel peninsula, Poland
1 - 5 June 2020

BACC II


 

Baltic Earth Workshop on

Climate projections and uncertainties in the northern Baltic Sea region

Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland
19- 20 November 2019



Scope

Climatic projections for the Baltic Sea have been carried out by numerous models. During the analyses of the results it was found that the uncertainty of the projections is largest in the northern Baltic Sea and Gulf of Finland. In these areas, the models usually have the lowest skill. Due to these shortcomings in the northern Baltic, it is of vital importance to collect specialists together to discuss the problems.

The climatic projections play an important role in several issues:

1. The adaptation to Climate Change (CC) is a major topic, and advice based on climatic projections is needed for various management issues.

2. Effective mitigation planning is needed e.g. in terms of eutrophication etc.

3. It is necessary to evaluate the role of the northern Baltic Sea in global carbon balance. Does the northern Baltic Sea act as strong source (cf. Arctic coastal areas)?

4. The northern Baltic Sea may act as a laboratory for studying CC mechanism in northern latitudes by using models as a tool.

Representatives of some of the most frequently used BGC models for projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem such as ERGOM, SCOBI, BALTSEM, BFM, SPBEM, ECOSMO and PROBE-Baltic will discuss the issues above. We hope and anticipate that this workshop adds to the overall improvement of model development in the Northern Baltic Sea region, but also beyond.

Presentations and posters about these topics are welcome (see call.... A common paper to AMBIO as outcome of this workshop is envisaged!

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Last update of this page: 6 Mar 2019